ERPZ Stop Mugging. Start Learning.

22Apr/11Off

PW Season

By Kevin

Risks

Take the right risks...

I guess it's the Project Work season again and it'll be worth your while to check out our PW page for some generic advice. This year, I'm glad to be able to offer some of my personal take on the question and the potential ideas and approaches. This could possibly the most useful piece on PW that ERPZ can offer for this year.

I shall first tackle Task 1, 'Risk'; it is not too tough and usually, PW questions are given so that you have a lot of room to explore different things. Which is wonderful.

Aim
This project task encourages you to took at the idea of risk and then show how risk-taking might affect people.

Task Requirements
Choose one example of risk-taking (in history, business, environmental studies, science, etc.), show how the need to take specific risks arose and analyse the positive and negative effects which resulted from the actions taken.

Suggest how lessons learned might be used to guide similar risk-taking in the future by individuals and/or groups.

There is a whole load of cases and examples out there for risk-taking and risky behaviours so just take your pick and then try and analyse each of the cases carefully. Ask yourself some of these questions:

  • What are the impacts of the action taken?
  • What is the agenda of the risk-takers?
  • Think abt how the risk-taking has been coordinated.
  • What're the aspects within their control and how did they manage these aspects?
  • What are the aspects they couldnt control and how they take actions to cover up down-side risks or prevent undesirable outcomes?
  • Use all these different parts to piece together the lessons and come up with a sort of 'guideline' or training programme

Comments are welcomed though students should not expect me to be guiding them on their specific projects.

2Nov/09Off

Irreducible Uncertainty

By Kevin

Relax, its just fire!

Relax, it's just fire!

The Straits Times caught my attention again the week before with a particular article by Robert Skidelsky, which was a contribution to Project Syndicate. In Keynes versus the Classics: Round 2, Skidelsky highlighted the problem with today's Keynesians being unwilling to work out the implications of irreducible uncertainty for economic theory. The article was essentially a response to the two economist, Krugman (his article) and Cochrane (his response here and here) who are engaging in an academic quarrel of sorts.

Krugman started out criticising the love for elegant economic theories of classical (implicitly speaking, Chicago school) economists. And Cochrane shot back, arguing that to attribute excessive fluctuations in the market to 'irrationality' is theoretical nihilism. And we all know that all that buying and selling has got motivations behind them even if these were results of false information, pure emotional preferences. I like Skidelsky's analogy about the theater on fire (which might have been used previously by other economists as well):

It’s like what happens in a crowded theater if someone shouts “Fire!” Everyone rushes to get out. This is not “irrational” behavior. It is reasonable behavior in the face of uncertainty.

I'm not sure if Robert Skidelsky is a Post-Keynesian like Hyman Minsky but his extensive research into John M Keynes has brought him to write several volumes about this economist once touted as a saviour of capitalism. In any case, I believe Keynes simply sprinkled some important ideas that are pertinent to our study of the economy and there is definitely a need for further studies into the insights of Keynes about our modern capitalist economy and possible save it from itself once again.