Multi-polar IT
The Duo
For a long time, the IT market was dominated by just 2 firms - Microsoft and Intel. Dubbed 'Wintel', the alliance of sorts had all the OEM computer manufacturers under their foot in the 1990s, Apple Computer was a struggling footnote of the PC wars of the 1980s. When I was kid and first started using the computer, it was the DOS prompt that I remember seeing, and the Windows 95 that seem to hang so frequently my reset button was a little damaged from heavy use.
For a long time we didn't expect anyone could topple the 'monopoly' of Wintel. Microsoft was releasing new Windows Operating Systems every 2 years or so. Of course, it turned out that such speedy development was not sustainable in a closed computing giant. Eventually, market space was distributed to old competitors who persisted. Linux and Apple have both been in the PC market but sidelined by the couple. The Economist traces this part of history and tracks how the couple have been driven apart and will continue to drift away from each other.
It concludes that the entire IT industry is becoming more vertically integrated with multiple giants. This is probably the result of the convergence between consumer, corporate and industrial technologies. Cloud computing, which was originally more research and industrial have been adopted by consumers and corporations. Personal Computers became powerful enough to be 'workstations' and therefore used by corporations. Moreover, the demand for working on the go means that most corporations prefer to supply laptops rather than desktops for their workers. The computers chosen by corporations are increasingly choices made by the users-to-be and not some IT department staff.
Nevertheless, a multi-polar IT world is not exactly one that might be fiercely competitive. With vertical integration, consumers are likely to be more locked-in. Users using the products of one particular company may be hesitant to switch, for fear of the work required to learn a new system. For ages, that was how Windows dominated and at present, there are still users who are not keen to switch to Mac because they are afraid it'd be 'difficult to use'. For Apple, iPod was a very Mac-user sort of device until they eventually launch iTunes for Windows. It is the adoption of iPod by the mass market that helped them to accept and embrace iPhone when it was produced. That is to say that in long run, companies may likely produce products that appeal to their original user group and may not want to be aggressive and try to penetrate other market segments.
Regulators, look out.