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A new approach to post-conflict recovery

Thanks for barging right in, can you please close the door as you leave?

I'm finally back from India, and finally free to write on Erpz.net! It's been an exciting and refreshing experience to say the least, as much as the heat and blackouts were quite unbearable (it reminds you of how fortunate you are in Singapore, with air-conditioning and constant electricity). During the time in our sleeping quarters, with nothing to do and a power failure in progress in the hot mid-day sun, I took to watching TED.com videos on my iPod Touch to whittle time away. Filmed in June 2009, Paul Collier introduces "new rules for rebuilding a broken nation".

With reference to Iraq then and with applications to Iraq & Afghanistan now, he asserts that the conventional approach to post-conflict recovery (to introduce a political settlement, to carry out peacekeeping short-term / withdraw fast and then to hold elections for an accountable government) gets the ideas about conflict resolution wrong. The risks of return to conflict with such a approach is high. Firstly, elections produce losers, who are unlikely to be soothed easily and would probably seek disruptive means of revenge. Next, peacekeeping with the aim of pulling out as soon as possible is naive, given that should conflict erupt again, it will be more difficult than in the past to bring back the peacekeepers. Lastly, post-conflict recovery should focus on economic recovery rather than political recovery, at least in the short and medium term. In other words, politics last instead of first, built on a foundation of security and economic development.

He suggests complementary approaches. First, recognise the interdependence of the UN Security Council (controlling the peacekeepers), aid donors (who forget / give up on post-conflict recovery sooner than desired) and the post-conflict government. In addition, focus on the long-term, especially as the process of recovery is slow, especially with regard to the economy. Lastly, recognise that economic recovery is the true exit strategy of peacekeepers; that only when the economy is stable (which is often interlinked and related to political and social stability) can peacekeepers safely pull out.

The focus of the post-conflict government, then, should be: jobs, health and clean government. Plenty of jobs can be found in particular in the construction sector, with regard to rebuilding / reconstruction without relying on external help. Healthcare is a subset, but a significant one, of basic social services that the government needs to provide. A clean, incorruptible government is important. Not just clean leaders, but a clean bureaucracy. Money needs to be scrutinised and tracked as it is being spent, as money can "leak" out of the system as it is being disbursed, which would then negate the efforts of the central government.

Rather wise advice, but certainly hard to implement given the on-the-ground conditions in Iraq & Afghanistan. We have to hope for enlightened leaders to come forth and take the lead, to allow Iraq & Afghanistan to recover fully.